SpaceX permanence valuation sensitivity
These are the assumptions the argument rests on, each one argued rather than asserted: what it is, where our number came from, how sure we are, and what it is worth to disagree with us. Move them. If the conclusion survives only at our settings, that is worth knowing before you accept it.
What Filtronic is worth per share on the house case: margins recovering to 21%, SpaceX holding the disclosed 83% of revenue, and the market paying a sector-standard 8x EBITDA. The market is paying about 47x for the same earnings — the Market-implied case is not a view we hold, it is what a buyer at 253p is assuming.
Bear 19.95p · Bull 95.81p · House 47.26p · Market-implied 253p · Panel, pre-verification 45.24p
No market inversion line: the spec has no two-axis sensitivity grid to invert.
Market data for reconciliation only — not house evidence · London Stock Exchange · FTC.L
- Implied share price (p)
- 47.26
- Non-SpaceX floor (p, stated assumption)
- 6.16
- Embedded SpaceX premium (p)
- 246.84
- FY2027 revenue required to justify 253p AT THE HOUSE 8x MULTIPLE (£m)
- 324.31
We start with FY2027 EBITDA, which we build from FY2026 revenue (£55.5m) scaled by SpaceX concentration (50-90%), then multiply by the margin recovery rate (15-30%). We apply a terminal EBITDA multiple (4-12x) to get enterprise value, add net cash (£11.3m), divide by shares outstanding (180m) and convert pence to pounds. The non-SpaceX floor assumes zero SpaceX revenue: we take FY2026 revenue, strip out SpaceX concentration, apply a distressed 8% EBITDA margin, multiply by 4x, add net cash, divide by shares and convert. The embedded premium is simply current price minus that floor. Required revenue solves backwards: what FY2027 revenue at the given margin would justify today's price at the given multiple.
You are standing exactly where we are. Move an assumption and this panel prices the disagreement.
Swing in Implied share price (p) across each assumption's full range, holding your other settings. Recomputed where you stand, never cached.
- 47.26
- 47.26
- not published yet
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